April 1, 2026 Snow2Flow Update

On March 31, 2026 By Ron Abramovich3 Comments

Now this is getting interesting… Usually our western mountain snowpack reaches its peak Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) in early April – not this year the pack peaked in mid-March under the early season Heat Dome. And now some of the rivers have also seen their snowmelt runoff peak. Seems like the snow and flow cycles are 2-3-4 weeks ahead of normal primarily from those warm temps. The Owhyee forgot to peak this year and is flowing at record lows levels very similar to 1992. The Bruneau rose last week and time will tell if there’s another snow increase.

An interesting observation in the Salmon and Selway basins is how much snow melted to provide March flows. This snowmelt was not just from mid-elevations but also higher elevations that are melting. So considering most of the streamflow volume forecasts are for the April-July period, does this shift of runoff into March mean the observed April-July volumes will be less and low summer base flows will occur even early this year. Is it time to consider shifting the primary forecast period from April-July to March-July?

This week’s last winter storm is just what is needed to slow the melt, add a little moisture to the pack, and rain on the soils as the snow melts. A cool wet spring would be ideal along with spring storms. Remember Yellowstone June 2022 and June 1963 Owyhee rain event pushed the river up to 5000 cfs. The least we need is another near record dry April-May-June precipitation like we saw last spring.

Snow2Flow Update 1Apr2026 Download

Idaho Museum of Mining & Geology – Water Snowpack and Drought Update

On March 23, 2026 By Ron AbramovichLeave a comment

Mid-March heat dome is melting Idaho’s snow way too earlier. Even the higher elevations are starting to melt and rivers are rising. Here’s an update of how we got here and the 3-D Drought that put us in this unique position. Winter 2026 will be remembered as a winter with near normal water year to date precipitation, elevation distributed snowpacks, warm temps and now a spring heat dome that is melting the snow and pushing rivers up, except in the Owyhee because there is very little snow to melt. Let’s hope cooler weather returns by month’s end and a few cool wet storms in Aril arrive to save our remaining higher elevation snow to melt later this spring. A wet spring is needed this year. Another record dry Apr-May-Jun like last year, would not be good. Spring rain are needed now while the snow is melting to increase runoff. Even a late spring rain event like the one that occurred June 1, 1963 pushing the Owyhee River up to 5000 cfs, would be sweet. 1963 is an analog year for this year which also had very low snow runoff in the Owyhee. Lessoned learned from watching Owyhee River runoff – it often sets the stage for runoff trends seen elsewhere in southern Idaho.

Abramovich museum talk 22Mar2026 Download

IWA Annual Predictions

On March 12, 2026 By Ron AbramovichLeave a comment

Here’s a Snow 2 Flow Update for the coming season. And remember to check out this Snow2Flow Verification post about using snowmelt rates to help prediction snowmelt peak flow dates or see if the peaks have passed. https://snowweatherandflow.blog/2026/01/22/snow2flow-verification-for-years-2023-24-25/

Ski ya later !!

Idaho Whitewater River Predictions 11March2026 Download

Snow: Idaho’s Frozen Liquid Gold

On February 20, 2026 By Ron Abramovich1 Comment

This talk was given at Osher Lifelong Learning Institute about, Part I, history of Snow Surveys, importance of snow and water supply forecasting, and how this information is used in the decision making process. Part II is about the current water year and snowfall and water supply outlook for this year.

Abramovich Osher 18Feb part1 Download

Abramovich Osher 18Feb part 2 Download

Where’s the Snow and Flow Going to Be in 2026 ?

On January 24, 2026January 24, 2026 By Ron Abramovich1 Comment

Here’s a summary of current snow water supply conditions for Idaho’s 4 River Lottery Rivers. Short on time for complete analysis but this should provide current info about the accumulation of this winter’s unique snowpack and where we are compared to other years.

wheres the snow and flow Download

Snow2Flow Verification for Years 2023, 24 & 25

On January 22, 2026 By Ron AbramovichLeave a comment

It’s always good to verify forecasts to better understand what works, and why or why not. This provides a better understanding of the relationship, other climate influencers that may have impacted the outcome and when works best. Following is a summary of Snow2Flow relationships used to predict date of peak flows, range of dates, and if the potential for additional snowmelt peaks has past or is decreasing

Snow & Flow graphs illustrate what happened and how the predictions preformed. 2026 SWE is also include to give you a hint how this winter is tracking these recent years. Next post Idaho’s Four River Lottery – Where’s the Snow and Flow Going in 2026 ?!

snow2flow verification 2023-24-25 Download

Snow & Water Supply Conditions & Outlook for the Payette, Boise & Owyhee Basins – How did we get here ?

On January 13, 2026 By Ron AbramovichLeave a comment

Here’s a summary of the 2025 runoff, the fall and early winter weather that created the unique elevational distribution of the snowpack and water supply outlook for the Payette, Boise & Owyhee basins. This talk was for the Idaho Alfalfa & Seed Growers Conference.

Abramovich seed gowers talk 13Jan2026 Download

Temperature Driven Snow Drought

On January 4, 2026January 4, 2026 By Ron AbramovichLeave a comment

A change in weather pattern starting around Dec 18 as hinted by Nov SOI Spikes brought numerous Atmospheric Rivers events with abundant precipitation to parts of the West. Too much rain in some areas. Locally, warm temps allowed this moisture to fall as rain rather than snow except in higher elevations around Idaho. Water year to date precip is near normal across most of the state. Snowpacks are near record low in lower elevations and increase in higher elevations. Smiley Mountain snow, in the Big Lost Basin, is 171% of normal. Here’s a summary explaining the abundant moisture and influence of temps on snowfall across central Idaho.

Temp driven snow drought Idaho Jan 4 2026 Download

Southern Oscillation Index Peak Follow-Up as More Models are in Agreement

On December 19, 2025 By Ron Abramovich1 Comment

It was an interesting 13 days since last post Dec 6 watching the weather and models coming together and now there’s model agreement of the active weather continuing into mid-January.

Dec 18 follow up Download

The Southern Oscillation Index’s Signal of What Might be Expected Soon

On December 8, 2025 By Ron AbramovichLeave a comment

No guarantees, but if history repeats, we could see a weather pattern change around Dec 18. Here’s a summary for the November SOI Event and what I learned the winter of 2014 when it also happened ! Time will tell where the event might arrive or if the event tracks farther east.