It was an interesting 13 days since last post Dec 6 watching the weather and models coming together and now there’s model agreement of the active weather continuing into mid-January.
Author: Ron Abramovich
ABOUT ME Ron Abramovich is a retired Idaho Water Supply Specialist who still watches the snow, weather and flow.
The Southern Oscillation Index’s Signal of What Might be Expected Soon
No guarantees, but if history repeats, we could see a weather pattern change around Dec 18. Here’s a summary for the November SOI Event and what I learned the winter of 2014 when it also happened ! Time will tell where the event might arrive or if the event tracks farther east.
2025 Summary & 2026 Outlook
Here’s a summary of what happened to last year’s runoff because of near record dry spring. Summer is over and Fall precip is moving with a huge Atmospheric River tail that stretches over 1000 miles to SE Asia. Winter Outlooks for 2025-26 with analog years based on similar ocean conditions; we’ll watch and updated as we progress into winter. For now enjoy the wet weather as we start the new water by building our mountain snowpack.
Mid-August Flow Update
How low can we go – many headwater rivers are flowing near the bottom 10% tile level for this time of year. Any rain would help…
Never Underestimate the Power of Rain to Produce Runoff
Here a summary of the Guadalupe River’s massive flood wave moving down river & update for Idaho Rivers – how low can we go. Link to an amazing story about a family’s survival of the flood. https://www.texasmonthly.com/news-politics/texas-flood-firsthand-account/
Why Our Rivers Flow the Way They Do !
Thanks Idaho Trails Association and letting me camp, work and watch the Selway River rise and fall this May. Here’s a summary about the climatic conditions (daily/weekly weather, cold & warm fronts, record high day & non-freezing night temps, snowmelt rates, lack of spring precipitation) that produced this spring’s Selway River hydrograph shape. It’s a complex world out there. Hopefully this helps explain the diurnal river changes and why our rivers flow the way they do as our winter snowpack melts in the spring.
June 11 Flow Update Across the State
When you see the Buffalo Fork snowmelt runoff peak happen in the upper Snake River basin, you know the snowmelt runoff season is winding down. Here’s an update with similar recession years to help in monitoring this year’s flow. Projections are made for some rivers if a peak wasn’t happening.
May 23 2025 Flow Update
Alphabetical flow graph summary – includes most Idaho rivers across the state and similar runoff years. Short on time to do full analysis but wanted to share.
Snow 2 Flow Update
For MF, Main Salmon, Selway & Lochsa and a few more – Owyhee, Bruneau and Salmon Falls Creek. Enjoy, be safe and keep and eye on the weather and flow levels for changing conditions.
Snow 2 Flow Update
Snow2Flow Update for: MF & Main Salmon Rivers – Selway & Lochsa Rivers and a few more: Owyhee, Camas Creek and Salmon Falls Creek
Snow is melting, rivers are rising, enjoy and be safe. Know your limits.
Snow Weather and Flow 