Author: Ron Abramovich

ABOUT ME Ron Abramovich is a retired Idaho Water Supply Specialist who still watches the snow, weather and flow.

Snow & Flow Update for Apr 12

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Following are several graphs illustrating current snow levels and similar years along with resulting runoff. The Owyhee – based on snow2flow relationship just had a snowmelt peak. More rain and warmer temps will produce more peaks. Weiser – always interesting watching the Weiser River react to current conditions as we wait and watch to try to figure out how the higher elevation basins in the state will flow. Camas Creek lots of snow to melt. Bruneau is looking good along with Salmon Falls Creek. Is Banner Summit reaching its peak? Time will tell and then we’ll see how headwaters snow melts and the mighty Salmon River responds. Be safe and know your boating limits.

snow-n-flow-12apr2023-update-1Download

The Owyhee River is rising…

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With plenty of snow to melt, we’ll see an extended period of higher water and the highest flows in a few years. The warmest days of the season will start melting more snow to feed the river. A projected weekend storm may limit how high the river rises or add to it with rain. When the peak occurs is still a function of how hot it gets and when, along with input from spring rains or not. We know there is a good snowpack, best in years, to sustain flows for a while based on past similar snow years. Be safe, know your limits and keep an eye that flow gage, the melting snow sites and future weather as the Owyhee flows in this high desert can change quickly.

owy-update-4apr2023Download

Bogus Basin snow depth as of March 24

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Bogus Basin natural snow depth is getting close to 100 inches… 93″ as of 8AM March 24. Maximum snow depth for each year and years that topped 100″ are: 1943, 1952, 1971, 1975, 1983 & 1999. This is based on historic 1st of month and mid-month snow course measurements starting in 1942 and daily snow depth measurements since 1999 !!!

The Owyhee River rose in March and will rise again in April!

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The Owyhee River at Rome increased to 4600 cfs (mean daily flow) on Mar 16 from melting of valley snow and rain for its first peak since last year. The higher elevation snow is still accumulating, even at Mud Flat SNOTEL site which is only 5730 feet in elevations. March precipitation thru March 27 was 144% of median with another storm to continue building the pack as cold will remain until at least early April. Then, get ready as the cold temps will not last for ever…

With an April-July runoff volume of 150% of median predicted, means we could see volumes similar to the first half of the 2019. The 2nd peak on May 31, 2019 depends if the wet /cool spring weather continues into late spring / early summer.

Where’s the deepest snow in the Idaho region ? Not in my backyard, maybe your playground !

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Here’s a link to today’s natural snow depth for all SNOTEL sites in our region in inches. The Report Generator link below gives full report – you can sort columns high to low or alphabetical. 

Lost Lake is the winner with 130” along the NF Clearwater/St Joe divide. Last night’s storm allowed Boise basin’s Trinity Mnt with 127” to pass Schweitzer Basin that only has 126” ! 

Central Idaho’s has a strong snowpack with Deadwood and Atlanta Summits and Grand Targhee making the top 5!

Usually March’s warmer temps allows the snow depth to start settling down and compacting, but not yet… cold is good ! This map shows month to date precip and March storm track across the the West. Another couple of storms are on the horizon that will keep adding to the pack.

https://wcc.sc.egov.usda.gov/reportGenerator/view/customMultipleStationReport/daily/dco%3D%22id%22+AND+network%3D%22SNTL%22+AND+outServiceDate%3D%222100-01-01%22%7Cname/0%2C0/stationId%2Cstate.code%2Cname%2CSNWD%3A%3Avalue?fitToScreen=false&sortBy=3:-1

2023 Snow Update & River Predictions

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No signs of an early spring in sight yet… so don’t put those skis away.

Here’s an update given at the Idaho Whitewater Association March 1 meeting. We start where we left off last March because 2022 set the stage for this 3rd consecutive La Nina winter. Included is current snowpack and similar (ocean condition analog) years for this winter. Most analog years had a delayed melt like 2022. Keep your eye on the sky as we watch to see what March brings and when warmer temperatures arrive. For now, cold is good to keep the snow in place and allow the mountainous snowpack to keep accumulating.

idaho-whitewater-river-predictions-1march2023Download

Are you smarter than a 5th grader? 

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I was lucky to speak to the 5th grade Barbara Morgan Elementary School science classes in McCall about importance of snow & water! Their homework was to predict the peak snow water content this year at Brundage Reservoir SNOTEL site and let their parents play too. What’s your guess?

Bonus – date of peak snow water equivalent (SWE)? Early, late or around the near normal peak of April 12?

Double Bonus – peak snow depth on the ground at Brundage Reservoir SNOTEL site?

importance-of-snow-2feb2023Download

How did we get here…

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Here’s a long PDF talk explaining 2022 snowfall and runoff compared to analog year 2009. This provides the background to better understand Pete Parson’s 2023 analog years. These current analog years are 2000, 2009 (again), & 2012 and runner up years of 1957 & 1972. January 15, marks the half way point of winter. A return to stormier and cooler PNW is predicted next week, which is great and unlike last year! Time will tell if we track one of these analog years or not. And if a late snowmelt as observed in the analog years occurs as winter ends and flows into spring. Spring melts away as rivers increase. Stay tuned and enjoy the ride…

Keep your eye on the horizon and let’s hope the storms continue building snowpacks across Idaho in the 2nd half of winter!!!

abramovich-january-talks-2023-2Download