It was an interesting 13 days since last post Dec 6 watching the weather and models coming together and now there’s model agreement of the active weather continuing into mid-January.
Tag: SOI
The Southern Oscillation Index’s Signal of What Might be Expected Soon
No guarantees, but if history repeats, we could see a weather pattern change around Dec 18. Here’s a summary for the November SOI Event and what I learned the winter of 2014 when it also happened ! Time will tell where the event might arrive or if the event tracks farther east.
Early Bird Forecasts and Analog Year Summary
Early Bird Forecasts or are they called Outlooks – either way, you got to know when to hold them, know when to believe them, know when to walk away and know which areas are favored for more snow and why. There are lots of late summer/early fall Winter Outlooks being shared and passed around. Recently, it seems there is a race to see who releases the first Outlook. Here’s a summary about what I’ve been watching for a while. See if it helps or share what you watch and works for you. Don’t believe the first forecast you hear or until you hear the same forecast from 2 or 3 unrelated friends.
Read on for more info about SOI correlation with western rivers and how analog years are identified and used to help with predicting / monitoring this winter.
Analog years used for this winter (water years):
1956-57 is water year 1958
1964-65 is water year 1966
1971-72 is water year 1973
Another analysis shows this year’s El Nino initially was tracking 2009-10 El Nino winter. Next post: SWE plots of analog years and 2010 to how snow is tracking or not.
Snow Weather and Flow 