Temperature Driven Snow Drought

On January 4, 2026January 4, 2026 By Ron AbramovichLeave a comment

A change in weather pattern starting around Dec 18 as hinted by Nov SOI Spikes brought numerous Atmospheric Rivers events with abundant precipitation to parts of the West. Too much rain in some areas. Locally, warm temps allowed this moisture to fall as rain rather than snow except in higher elevations around Idaho. Water year to date precip is near normal across most of the state. Snowpacks are near record low in lower elevations and increase in higher elevations. Smiley Mountain snow, in the Big Lost Basin, is 171% of normal. Here’s a summary explaining the abundant moisture and influence of temps on snowfall across central Idaho.

Temp driven snow drought Idaho Jan 4 2026 Download

Southern Oscillation Index Peak Follow-Up as More Models are in Agreement

On December 19, 2025 By Ron Abramovich1 Comment

It was an interesting 13 days since last post Dec 6 watching the weather and models coming together and now there’s model agreement of the active weather continuing into mid-January.

Dec 18 follow up Download

The Southern Oscillation Index’s Signal of What Might be Expected Soon

On December 8, 2025 By Ron AbramovichLeave a comment

No guarantees, but if history repeats, we could see a weather pattern change around Dec 18. Here’s a summary for the November SOI Event and what I learned the winter of 2014 when it also happened ! Time will tell where the event might arrive or if the event tracks farther east.

Dec Update 2 Download

Early Bird Forecasts and Analog Year Summary

On February 12, 2024February 12, 2024 By Ron AbramovichLeave a comment

Early Bird Forecasts or are they called Outlooks – either way, you got to know when to hold them, know when to believe them, know when to walk away and know which areas are favored for more snow and why. There are lots of late summer/early fall Winter Outlooks being shared and passed around. Recently, it seems there is a race to see who releases the first Outlook. Here’s a summary about what I’ve been watching for a while. See if it helps or share what you watch and works for you. Don’t believe the first forecast you hear or until you hear the same forecast from 2 or 3 unrelated friends.

Read on for more info about SOI correlation with western rivers and how analog years are identified and used to help with predicting / monitoring this winter.

Analog years used for this winter (water years):

1956-57 is water year 1958

1964-65 is water year 1966

1971-72 is water year 1973

Another analysis shows this year’s El Nino initially was tracking 2009-10 El Nino winter. Next post: SWE plots of analog years and 2010 to how snow is tracking or not.