With some moisture moving in this weekend, we’ll soon see which rivers benefit from the moisture and which basins the moisture helps to slow the fires progress. This update has a few weather outlooks, and projected flow graphs along with comparisons to see how the Aug 6 flow projections preformed. Projections were pretty good. Rivers are easier to project when they are approaching their seasonal lows for the year.
Here’s an update based on current info. We’ll see later today and tomorrow how high these rivers peak. Here’s a link to previous post to project flow levels on your launch date for MF & Selway. Give it a try and see if still works after the peak has occurred. No cheating, wait for the peak… and play it safe. https://snowweatherandflow.blog/2022/06/19/mf-salmon-and-selway-rivers-recession-flow-estimation-tool-for-use-after-peak-flows-have-occurred-and-river-is-in-full-recession/
With the return of warm temps, rivers are rising again. The last cold front slowed the melt down to a few tenths per day and increased to 1.4″ yesterday with temps reaching 67 F at Deadwood Summit. With these yoyo like temps and some precipitation remaining in forecast, expect a few more ups n downs in flow levels before full recession starts.
Snowmelt peaks are happening – this week’s warm temps should be enough to push enough snow out of the remaining snowpack to produce peak flows before freezing night time temps return Friday night. This will slow melt rates and push recession flows out a bit. Enjoy & be safe – know your limits.
Here’s an update looking at remaining snow, snowmelt, volume forecasts and similar runoff years. We’ll see a decrease in melt and flows with cooler front moving in, but melt and flows are projected to rebound later this week with return to high pressure, that will hopefully move on sooner than later…
The Teton River is just reaching its snowmelt peak while the Moyie River is flowing near record low. The Owyhee River is just now reaching the tail end of recession flows. Central Idaho’s rivers are receding from their snow driven peaks. May brought warm temps with above freezing nighttime that resulted in 24/7 meting and probably record high SWE loses during the month of May because there was plenty of snow to melt. June’s cooler and wetter weather will help push recession flows out a bit before the normal low flow summer levels arrive. Owyhee and Bruneau recession flows months are a good example of these extended flows. Enjoy the river, know your limits and keep your eye on the weather and those river flow levels.
With snowmelt rates at 1.5-2.0″ a day for several days streams are reaching their peaks just as cooler temps arrived and snow starts to runs out a few sites. But as observed in the Owyhee and Bruneau Rivers, rivers stayed higher longer probably as a result of the good mid-elevation snow that feeds ’em.
Boundary Creek Road May 19, 2023 with 15″ SWE at Banner Summit.
Snow Weather and Flow 