It’s always good to verify forecasts to better understand what works, and why or why not. This provides a better understanding of the relationship, other climate influencers that may have impacted the outcome and when works best. Following is a summary of Snow2Flow relationships used to predict date of peak flows, range of dates, and if the potential for additional snowmelt peaks has past or is decreasing
Snow & Flow graphs illustrate what happened and how the predictions preformed. 2026 SWE is also include to give you a hint how this winter is tracking these recent years. Next post Idaho’s Four River Lottery – Where’s the Snow and Flow Going in 2026 ?!
Here’s a summary of the 2025 runoff, the fall and early winter weather that created the unique elevational distribution of the snowpack and water supply outlook for the Payette, Boise & Owyhee basins. This talk was for the Idaho Alfalfa & Seed Growers Conference.
When you see the Buffalo Fork snowmelt runoff peak happen in the upper Snake River basin, you know the snowmelt runoff season is winding down. Here’s an update with similar recession years to help in monitoring this year’s flow. Projections are made for some rivers if a peak wasn’t happening.
Alphabetical flow graph summary – includes most Idaho rivers across the state and similar runoff years. Short on time to do full analysis but wanted to share.
For MF, Main Salmon, Selway & Lochsa and a few more – Owyhee, Bruneau and Salmon Falls Creek. Enjoy, be safe and keep and eye on the weather and flow levels for changing conditions.
Wow – what just hit us? Here’s a summary of the key indicators I was watching leading up to this storm. Never stop learning and watching the weather to better understand what’s happening here, around us and why.
The PNA started hinting at weather system brewing back on Mar 13 with sharp decrease and biggest drop since last Nov storm. A Buoy Pop was also marked on my calendar from around same time. Always nice to see in agreement of indicators two weeks out.
Here’s current PNA which shows the Apr 1 drop, then going positive which means return to high pressure in early April.
Severe Weather Europe from Mar 31 provides a good explanation, just need to read between the Ads. They summarize the springtime battle between winter and summer patterns fighting for the lead. This probably led to the isolated weather pattern and intense storm with 10” falling at Brundage and a couple at Bogus Monday morning followed 24 hours later with 10” at Bogus while Tamarack & Brundage received a little Tuesday morning. OpenSnow forecast weather radar nailed storm hitting Bogus early Tuesday morning and not pushing north. I should have been watching the radar loop for Brundage storm. https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/april-2025-forecast-stratospheric-polar-vortex-impact-cold-air-united-states-canada-fa/
Severe Weather also provides a good summary of early April weather and why we’re gonna be warm & dry in the West and the East needs to prepare for colder and wet. Many other models are picking up intensity of this event now. Stay safe.
Spring skiing returns this weekend to Idaho’s southern resorts with freezing night temps and warm day temps. Enjoy while the nights are still freezing in the mountains.
This also means the rivers will rebound with the warmer temps. Be safe out there – a friend is on a solo trip down the Main Salmon this week.
Snow Weather and Flow 