Summary of the Boise-Bogus early April 2024 Storm
Author: Ron Abramovich
ABOUT ME Ron Abramovich is a retired Idaho Water Supply Specialist who still watches the snow, weather and flow.
Bogus Basin & Brundage Reservoir Apr 1 SWE
Ever wonder and wander like me… about how times Bogus has had more snow than Brundage? This year and last year made me wonder more. It happened in back-to-back years like 2023 & 2024 and 1945 & 1946 and a few more. The answer is 12 !
Owyhee! Let it Flow!!
Here’s an update for the Owyhee based on current snow, flow projections and more weather moving in this week and next. It’s nice to look at big picture to see what’s happening around this tri-state basin.
Idaho Whitewater Association River Predictions
Snow & Flow Summary for many of Idaho’s whitewater rivers. Current snow, water supply forecasts, analog snow years, and runoff examples for these years. Example runoff years used, illustrate a early to normal snow melt and a late melt that had a wet spring (2010). Also included, is bonus sneak peak at next winter, the year after a strong El Nino year like this year. Here’s an updated March weather slide from Cliff Mass Blog that shows high pressure is likely to move into the West March 13-20. This may start the lower elevation rivers to flow depending on air temperature levels.
Idaho Hay & Forage Talk
Current snow & water supply summary across the state with more details for Upper Snake, Boise and Payette basins.
Snow & Flow Update
Why they send river rejection emails out on Valentine’s Day, I’ll never know but got my rejectionS. For those wondering about the snow, here’s an update that show snow changes from Jan to Feb, chance for the pack to recover and SWE graphs of analog snow years for the lucky ones that won !
Early Bird Forecasts and Analog Year Summary
Early Bird Forecasts or are they called Outlooks – either way, you got to know when to hold them, know when to believe them, know when to walk away and know which areas are favored for more snow and why. There are lots of late summer/early fall Winter Outlooks being shared and passed around. Recently, it seems there is a race to see who releases the first Outlook. Here’s a summary about what I’ve been watching for a while. See if it helps or share what you watch and works for you. Don’t believe the first forecast you hear or until you hear the same forecast from 2 or 3 unrelated friends.
Read on for more info about SOI correlation with western rivers and how analog years are identified and used to help with predicting / monitoring this winter.
Analog years used for this winter (water years):
1956-57 is water year 1958
1964-65 is water year 1966
1971-72 is water year 1973
Another analysis shows this year’s El Nino initially was tracking 2009-10 El Nino winter. Next post: SWE plots of analog years and 2010 to how snow is tracking or not.
Selway & Lochsa Rivers
Snow & Flow Update — And Owyhee is up !
Here’s an update for Selway & Lochsa Rivers based on Jan 1 & Jan 28 that shows the current snow, chance to recover, and plots of other strong El Nino years along with analog years. We’ll keep an eye on using 2010 as another analog year for this winter and watch how it tracks else in the state too. Enjoy spring skiing this week but stay tuned as we still have 40% of winter to go and winter returns in early February (this weekend)!
Big Wood River Snow & Flow Update
Following are long & short term snow analysis that illustrate the Jan 1 snowpack and how the snowpack ended the season Apr 1. Short answer – need more storms!
Snow Weather and Flow 